Why Call It Aikido 2.0
Aikido principles applied beyond the mat is an area of study imagined as, at best, esoteric, hard to convey except indirectly, uncomfortably Not My Area Of Expertise (I wasn't taught and authorized to teach it), and as an add-on or distraction rather than as an essential level of traditional training which is explicitly available given the right method and curriculum. That last bit is what Aikido 2.0 is all about, and the method and curriculum are what I provide under the name Conflict Done Well.
Please check out Aikido 2, subscribe to our email list and Zoom classes, and find us on Facebook to learn about others who are exploring this work.
Aikido practitioners may want to share this page http://culturesmith.com/Why_Call_It_Aikido_2_0.
It is necessary to think and talk about this as Aikido 2.0 because the most important survival requirement of our species is that we learn to do conflict well, to work creatively through difference, so we don't use our governing economic systems and other weapons to destroy ourselves and world. For aikido to succeed in its mission to change how the world does conflict, it must evolve into a next version that bridges the contexts within which it is now limited. Aikido must expand its idea of itself worldwide by explicitly practicing the areas of aiki-related study which the founder initiated through poetry, myth, and metaphor, and which lead to actual peace because they 1) can be fully embodied--not only repairing the compartmentalized literal/physical but also having to do with psychology, communication, and systems and 2) demonstrably engage in the positive transformation of everyday conflict as it arises.
I was invited to deploy my Ph.D. to teach in the Somatic Psychology department at Pacifica Graduate Institute because my Martial Nonviolence method and Conflict Done Well system were used to build the Peace Practices curriculum which received international funding, and because the learning is obviously applicable by everyone. Aikido 2 should be of particular interest to aikidoists, and especially teachers thereof, not just because they need to demonstrate their value to a video audience, but mostly because it leads to understanding and improving physical technique while extending the heretofore intangible principles associated with aikido into all kinds of conflict. More fundamentally, it is also a way for anyone to learn the importance of a martial approach in practicing, testing, and deploying conflict transforming techniques in a way that can be measured and widely verified. I believe that we are called to act in public and private so that global expectations change, thereby making actual peace possible--everyone getting what they need and a shot at what they want. All that remains is to pick a method that actually leads to that outcome---and practice.
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I so appreciate how Brandon has put together Conflict Done Well and Peace Practices as a way to teach all people aikido principles in both a physical and mental way. Everything in his most recent Brazil seminar (https://youtu.be/Rgip4B8361o) made perfect sense to me and flowed beautifully. This work in the world is much needed and so valuable! -- Kayla Feder, 7th dan, Founder and Dojo Cho, Aikido of Berkeley
Seasons Grittings
You may have noticed that 2020, especially given the isolation involved, has inspired some to reach out and reconnect with those long lost, even if only as a cry in the wilderness hoping for responding echoes. This letter is an attempt to diminish painful realities by increasing the chance of enjoying shared narrative, sustained connection, and meaningful reflection. I have resolved to do a better job of sharing with my community a few of the resources at my disposal to work towards a world that works well for everyone. Please give me any feedback at all that might move me or anyone else in that direction.
Season’s Grittings!
After returning to Texas from California in 2018, Lisa and the children became a part of White Rock Montessori while I worked on consulting, teaching, ongoing projects, and for the Census. We responded to the viral and political pandemics by following all official guidelines religiously, and I began offering online training several times a week in Martial Nonviolence, Peace Practices and family aikido, as well as conflict consultation for leadership, all under the banner of Conflict Done Well. If you’d like to know more or join me online, please make contact and visit ConflictDoneWell.com hosted on the website of my consultancy, Culturesmith.com.
Despite the pun above, there has definitely been more enjoyment than gritting of teeth in returning to my roots in North Texas. We are near my parents after twenty five years, which is a blessing beyond description. The Fall has been lovely, especially with room for all of us and a spacious back yard in which to enjoy the gift of time together. I turned fifty-one last year and am taking stock in what I hope will be a developmentally and archetypally coherent way. We surrendered an amazing, loving community and several dreams before leaving beautiful (in almost every way) but unaffordable CA, and have lost some particularly fine friends to the grave.
Part of me wants very deeply to respond by putting all that I have to offer on the table, no matter the cost, while there still appears to be time. Another part remembers the price we paid last time. I learned down to my toes that thrown seeds die no matter the passion with which they are hurled if the ground and season are not ready for them to flourish, or if there are not enough hands to till the soil, let alone gather in whatever harvest arises. I worry that I know too little of seasons to go around shaking fists, even when full of seeds. I worry that nobody ever truly followed their calling by worrying, and certainly not by admitting in public the darker parts of life and hope. Isn't it said that hard work is always more rewarding than fist-shaking and angst? I yearn for daily co-conspirators and a shared mission. I learn how many ways someone over fifty can be so "overqualified" when seeking employment. I continue to search for teams ready to work together to really make a positive difference in the world. I have helped build them many times and would love to do so again.
Lisa is loving teaching, as ever, and is deeply thankful for her excellent students, colleagues, and the community at White Rock Montessori. We are all grateful for and happy to know the folks we worship with at St. Stephen UMC. The kids have both chosen to continue ballet at Dallas Ballet Center, begun remote Japanese language lessons (Thanks, Kaori Sensei!) every Saturday after Family Aikido, and Huston is in piano lessons with an excellent teacher. Most of all, we continue to be stretched between profound gratitude for Grandparents nearby and desperately missing our fabulous kin and chosen families on the coasts whom, like so many people this year, we have not been able to squeeze in way too long. Soon. Soon, we keep telling each other.
In the end this is, like most of my messages, a love letter, a murmered...soon...soon, and a promise that we will draw closer somehow to the persons, both physical and imaginal, who matter most. Please help us not to forget each other despite extended absences.
How are you, and what are you up to?
Brandon Williamscraig
brandon at culturesmith dot com
P.S. By popular demand, this initial letter was mostly personal. As promised, more explicitly helpful offerings will follow. In the meantime, thanks to Richard Page for the excellent resources below. I recommend them, in particular, to the participants in my recent class on the book White Fragility:
Deep conversation on the coup attempt and how to create bridges instead of actions that break us apart: https://belonging.berkeley.edu/askobi
Also 12 videos on creating solidarity from co-panelist Prof. Ian Haney Lopez at:
Race-Class-Academy.com
Also please consider https://www.hbo.com/specials/between-the-world-and-me
Eldercare Dilemmas
VRE: Personal rant... Not seeking sympathy or anything, just made some observations and needed to express them. I've been staying in an old folks home for almost four months now. Something has bugged me about this place since I got moved into this room... Observing my roommate and I notice that his whole day revolves around himself, and what he wants or needs. There is no thought or consideration of others, and they are given no need to. He's not rude per'se, he's polite and all that, but somewhat demanding. And I see the same thing in everyone here. Not the staff of course, all they do is give and do things for all the people here. But the patients are all focused on themselves. And there is no way for them to contribute or give, to be part of things or have any purpose here.
There's no purpose to any of the patients lives except just to be alive. No responsibilities. And it makes them petty and needy. They get upset at the slightest inconvenience, and are impatient for anything they request. My roommate started cussing because there was a slight power surge and it made the tv flicker for an instant. After another such surge, that caused the system to reboot, he got angry because the golf channel was off line for 30 minutes. The golf channel, seriously. The battery on our clock died and he called to maintenance 5 times and complained to every nurse, CNA or staff that came by. And I see the same kind of petty complaining all over. Some get so upset at, what I consider, minor inconveniences that they yell and swear at the staff. Blaming whoever they are yelling at for the issue, even if it isn't their responsibility.
I keep trying to find something to do but there isn't any. I try to be self sufficient, I get my own water, change my own bedding, bathe and clean myself. I'd cook myself if they'd let me. But there is no way to have any purpose here other than merely existing. It is boring and depressing. Don't get me wrong, I'm not really complaining, given my situation I am happy to be alive. But this place gets to me sometimes and I've been trying to figure what bothers me so much. I have no purpose here other than just healing from my wounds, and that doesn't occupy my time as an activity. None of these people have any purpose to their lives here. I think that is one of the reasons I can't relate to anyone, aside from the vast age gap, and why some of the patients are they way they are... I want to have a purpose, I need to. They have all yielded to this existence, and I find I can't. When I told my roommate I couldn't stay here as long as he (over seven years) he says I have to adapt as he has. I don't know if "adapt" is the right word for what happens to the people here.
RA: Unfortunately many of these folks have gone beyond and will never return to society in whole or part. No joie de vivre, just exist.
VRE: Oh most certainly... Most will never leave this place alive... And many are fully aware of that. Others... Not really aware at all.
CB: Thank goodness you’ll get to leave that place!!
AS: I can’t even imagine 7 years
VRE: He told me there is one guy that has been here for at least 12 years.
DTA: I look forward to you coming home.
RA: DTA, me, and 4 furries agree.
MF: Hang in there! I’m sure it’s trying having to stay in one place for so long and endure the monotony. Hopefully you’ll get a chance to leave soon and get a little normalcy...COVID normalcy anyway. Wishing you all the best and a speedier recovery.
VRE: Thanks Mark. I do have plenty of support, and appreciate the encouragement. This was more of a commentary on this place and the environment for these people... As I kind of noted, I feel apart from that. I know my time here is temporary. But the feeling of a loss of purpose is palpable here.
MC: ...that's the problem with retirement, you need to have something to do, a hobby, an interest, something to take your mind off cliff infrastructure of us. Keep on moving! Assisted living facilities can get ya down.
VRE: This is beyond just retirement. There is literally nothing to do. 'Nothing' IS what they do. There is no place for a productive hobby aside from some sort of arts and crafts type of thing. I really feel sorry for the people here. To have lost all facil… See More
MC: sounds like God's Waiting Room.
BC: I work in this industry and I'd like to share your words with a few key executives. We work really hard to do the things you say (empowering and enabling residents), and I'd like them to hear the perspective you have. I believe you're in skilled nursing. Is that correct? That is admittedly the most difficult level of care to enable people given the serious (and litigious) nature of things. May I privately and professionally share what you say here?
VRE: Yes, of course. And yes, I am in a skilled nursing facility. As you are probably already aware most planned activities here have been suspended due to covid socializing restrictions. So there's that... Please though, make it clear this is just a FB post and not a proper statement with all things considered and/or addressed.
BC: I will, definitely. Personally, I believe this kind of statement is critical. Largely unfiltered and off the cuff. That's why I want to share it. Thank you. I'll make your caveat clear.
Brandon WilliamsCraig: I too hope to share your post by including it on Culturesmith.com and writing some additional thoughts. Is it sufficient to change the names to initials?
VRE: I don't know how my post relates to conflict resolution, but sure, ok.
Brandon WilliamsCraig: Culturesmith is about the psychological part of culture-making. In this case, the culture of "Elder Care" & Rehab. Conflict is the area I believe is most important for humans to learn in order to build a culture in which we make better decisions together. Thus Martial Nonviolence (the method), Peace Practices (curriculum designed for specific groups), and Conflict Done Well (the whole enchilada and dojos to learn it), all of which live at Cs. Does that clarify the relevance of the posts I transfer to the website? Your rant may not feel purposeful to you in your current situation, but it serves other people admirably, in my opinion, in that it provokes ideas, group experimentation, and learning which, as a teacher, is my purpose.
DJ: Hang in there. Let me know how I may be of assistance to you.
AM: Now the hard part: for as long as you're there, what do you do with this observation beyond self-sufficiency? How might you engage with even just your roommate to create a shift for him?
Valentino R. Elias
Ash, it is not for me to do so... As I have said, from my observation most are resigned to this existence. Some even get upset when there is any change to their routine. And for my roommate in particular I know he would not invite such a shift... It would also be imposing my outlook unto others. Besides, how am I supposed to create a sense of purpose in a place where I can't find a sense of purpose even for myself. Trying to change others is not the kind of purpose I'm talking about.
AM: Mmm, yes I wasn't envisioning trying to change others...that's impossible. But that doesn't mean you couldn't create an offering that they might pick up and choose to engage with.
VRE: Like what? I don't think you understand what it is like here, for these people, and for me. I know you're trying to be all positive and whatnot, but I don't think you get it. I mean this is what I was trying to point out in my post. I think it is an inherent weakness in this type of facility. As Ben noted it is something they are trying to deal with, and, I assume, has been an ongoing issue... And aside from all that... What makes you assume that I want to? It is not in my personality to take on such a role.
AM: Totally a fine answer. I just got a sense that you felt a need to engage somehow, for yourself, for them, and for the staff. If not, carry on.
VRE: Naw, it was just my observation. Just like I said. I did call it a "rant". I largely keep to myself as I know my time here is temporary. But I watch and I listen. Nothing else to do really.
YIP: the behaviors of some of the residents appear to be similar to the clients at the housing program where i work. clients become "institutionalized" and are resigned to being totally dependent upon staff. i would guess the misdirected anger is an expression of their "acknowledgement" of their current situation.
VRE: Pretty much... Some, like my roommate, can do things for themselves that they make staff do for them. I figure it is to illicit some sort of control over the people who care for them since they cannot control the situation they are in. Yet they also treat my roommate like senior care royalty, they all seem to love him and some come by just to say hi. They tell me his wife, who passed away in the same room/bed station he is in now, was the same way but more so. She wouldn't do anything for herself and treated the staff like servants.
JTB: Very Interesting observation, made me think. I go to nursing homes a lot for my job over the last 30 years. Im often overwhelmed emotionally. Beyond the cumulative need that exsist on all sides, the personal apathy amongst all sides is as tangable as the walls. I always enjoy the folks who are trying to make light of the situation
Deadly Sitting
It can be deadly to be seated. Sedentary hours in a chair have been shown to shorten our lifespan and make us vulnerable to all manner of ailments.(1) Sometimes it is metaphorically "deadly" to sit down at my desk when more screen time will not serve me well. I will probably wander wherever the daemons of virtuality are designed to beckon. When speaking metaphorically of death, what passes is psychological, in this case my inner sense of purpose, belief in the value of incremental steps in proportion to my limits and too subtle to solve big problems all at once. Deciding What To Do Next can fall victim to an attention "deficit", "depression", or some less infamous but no less pernicious deadening of my sense of what I feel and feel called to do. Deadly. What if metaphorically deadly beliefs are psychologically linked to literally deadly behaviors and habits?
Once upon a time, I remember hearing "Sit Down!" screamed at each passionate advocate of social justice as they rose in turn to speak in a public meeting. If more activists "sat down" would there be hope for a global psychological shift from white supremacy, a change in the imagination that bends our shared experience toward justice for all? The literal deaths of persons are directly related to the symbolic life and death of Movements toward equity. If this is so, how can I remain seated? But what will I do when I stand up? Shouldn't I have a master plan first? Perhaps I should sit down to think it through. Otherwise, I might be vulnerable to embarrassment.
Standing up has its own sense and symbolic purpose. I can feel myself doing it, the change in my own literal and metaphorical balance. The balance of power changes when someone stands up in a group. Being seen standing up is a big deal, and sometimes your standing up remains private and less significant until you take it into the street. Literal and metaphorical standing up are not really discrete, only different in sense. Standing implies a different state of readiness for action, even if The Ultimate Fix is still a fantasy or not yet in sight or entirely clear. I facilitate those ready to learn about conflict and teamwork like a martial art--through the somatic (embodied) aspects of psychology. I call this Martial Nonviolence. When a group appears to reach a point of waning energy, an impasse, a familiar quagmire of some kind, I sometimes ask that everyone stand and remain standing until we find the way forward. Often that is enough.
Especially at this time in our nation's history, we seem to have no choice but to sit and literally wait. In many ways that is very sensible, especially as we #CountEveryVote. I let this piece of writing wait until after Election Day so that it would not be confused with Yet Another (exhausting but essential) Partisan Appeal and put to the side. If we decide to wait, let us use that time to briefly consider how our light is spent.(2)
Even should I be blinded by the moment, or the era, I will stand on my own two feet and be still, as necessary, but I will not wait in my heart. At regular intervals I will sit down literally, to rest, but not for long. Full of metaphors, Spirit will lift my literal body up again until our petty cruelties and habits of supremacy are mostly a memory. My imagination reaches into yesterday, today, and tomorrow with justice and a return to honorable dealing foremost in my mind as I work through conflicts within myself and with others. My soul makes meaning from every experience, so I practice consciously as I am able, careful to study and learn how to balance and stand upright. Let us practice this together as Conflict Done Well with victory defined, especially by anyone in public service, as everyone involved getting what they clearly need and a fair shot at what they want.
Brandon
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1. https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2015/10/06/446295001/your-chair-is-killing-you-here-s-what-you-need-to-do-to-stop-it. Also https://www.popsci.com/science/article/2013-02/many-reasons-chair-killing-you/.
2. Milton https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/When_I_Consider_How_My_Light_is_Spent
What follows is feedback about "Deadly Sitting gathered from responses. If you'd like to append your name, please sign in to edit this page.
"Beautiful email!"
"Thanks, Brandon, This hits home. I need to sit when I'm actually writing, but I do my best thinking when I'm in motion, standing up, heeding Spirit's call to stand up and move."
"we sit when we are silent. and we cannot be heard sitting. except in silence. thus all stand in the presence of the seated diety. Jesus did not sit. except at the silencing of the last supper. thus we say stand, and be counted. ============= I find I learn more wisely by letting go of what I thought I knew: thus I listen deeper at the font of others' experiences."
"Hey there, I’m writing to you because it’s clear from your writing and sending that you want to be heard. I’m not going to edit, just suggest. I think you are mistaking passion for clarity. This piece would have benefited from a week in the drawer followed by a re-writing. I’ve always known from my own writing experience that passion can seem scenic by night and cynic by day. And, forgive me, for I also remember how pissed off I became when my passionate writing was criticized. I’m also reminded of the words of that ole sage ex-friend of mine...when he said, “I can’t tell what he wants me to do”. I’m not at all certain that you know who your audience is. Just remember, in the words of that famous sea-food chef, “Even in the dark night of the sole, somebody gets to eat”.
"WOW! I love this piece. When I finished reading it I said, “That’s my Brandon!” Between you and me and the balance exercises you taught me, I have found myself leaning to the right physically (not mentally) both in my 10,000 steps a day and in sitting in my chair. That has caused physical pain on my right side. My...NP helped me with a stretch that relieves it, but your words help me with what I am wrestling with mentally (and physically). Thank you. Now back to this piece, may I share it with a group at [church] that I am on? It’s work is to look at [our] history...and why it is such a white church. We’ve delved into segregation of the schools, busing in the ‘60’s and ‘70’s, city policies of red lining and covenants in real estate, and we will have a presentation Wednesday on John Wesley and his mark in the church. We are working on what we are can/want to do next, and in the future to make it a more inclusive church. ... If you want to share this piece, would you be willing to let me send it...? Or you could send it and say I suggested it to this group. Thank you for being in my life. I love you."
"Very nicely said and thought provoking. Still life throws too much at me to think of something new. Hard enough wading through the swamp I’m in."
Vote Today For Humanity
#VoteBlue #burythegop #RuthSentMe #RBG Have Faith in Texas!
Honor the dead, the saints, by making fewer of them. Choose as president a flawed but profoundly qualified person with a known positive and negative record of service who wants to be seen as a decent human being, rather than a treasonous mass-murderer. Tough choice? Are you feeling depressed, hopeless, frozen in fury/terror, lost, or in some other way disinclined to act? You are not alone, even across time.
Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,
Creeps in this petty pace from day to day,
To the last syllable of recorded time;
And all our yesterdays have lighted fools
The way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle!
Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player,
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage,
And then is heard no more. It is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.
But let us not fall victim to the ever present danger of making everything (even anything) about Precedent Rump, Hamlet, or any other figure whose inner monologue seems inevitably dominant at center stage. Vote Democrat all the way down the ballot not because that party or our two party system is just, but because that forced binary is the choice before us today. One choice will kill future generations in advance in ways that are nasty, brutish, and short, while the other will give us more time to save ourselves and the planet.
The GoP, the historical Republican party is dead, consumed by the cancer of Supremacy, white, class, gender, nationalist, etc. #BuryTheGoP because that zombie institution has been (re?)designed to eat the brains and burn the lives of future generations, fellow human beings hurled on the pyre of power-at-any-cost and for its own sake. But hate the sin and love the sinner, as it were. Honest Republicans and Democrats are both doing what they believe to be best based on purposefully limited information.
Any #BlueWave is only as good as the Bluevolution it brings about, the passing of and grief over the choices by which we are killing ourselves, each other, and our world. We all will die, often at the hands of our own policy, but we are throwing ourselves on the sword of our obsessions so fast that we don't have time to make meaning out of it. Mourn and allow to pass the long, brutish night of domination, the tooth and nail of crotch-clutching and consuming as much as possible. The fantasy that this is Just The Way Life Is also afflicts The Democrats and all powerful political parties. Only a party with the deepest blues, sorrow so profound it cannot use its power to oppress, can result in an America where government by and for The People might be possible.
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Responses to Vote Today For Humanity
Thank you for the catch up share. Been a year since we've been together. This video fell into my lap. Sharing with you . . . because it's you too. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pLe1o80zwgY
Failures of Imagination Beget Horrors
Little Known Black History Facts (on Facebook)
“In Louisiana, black women were put in cells with male prisoners and some became pregnant. In 1848, legislators passed a new law declaring that all children born in the penitentiary of African American parents serving life sentences would be property of the state. The women would raise the kids until the age of ten, at which point the penitentiary would place an ad in the newspaper. Thirty days later, the children would be auctioned off on the courthouse steps 'cash on delivery.' The proceeds were used to fund schools for white children. . . many of [the black children] were purchased by prison officials.”
Source: American Prison: A Reporter's Undercover Journey into the Business of Punishment by Shane Bauer
H/T Sharon Morgan
Brandon WilliamsCraig: Just when you thought we could sink no lower...
Lenore Norrgard: We can always sink lower. Things can always get worse. I hope this is something some people will learn from 2020. I think that thinking we have hit bottom and that things can't get worse is a serious problem. It is a kind of blindness to what is and how things work.
BW: I agree fully. The phrase #failureofimagination, for instance, suggests so much more than "Gosh, we hadn't thought of that," which is almost always not really true. The mytho-historical record provides plenty of factual evidence and fictional projections about how far down the sui-homicidal hole we can plunge. Our conscious despoiling and voluntary avoidance are apocalyptic enough before we even get to the tragedy of the subconscious (not unconscious) dynamics we could understand but will not do the work to uncover. We frantically distract ourselves. If we didn't we would Know and give up the plausible deniability which allows us to enact horrors for short-term gain while dodging liability and claiming ignorance.
COTE
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Census Completion Wrangle
Judge says 2020 census must continue for another month
Updated Sep 26, 3:41 PM; Posted Sep 26, 3:41 PM
2020 Census
By The Associated Press
By Mike Schneider
ORLANDO, Fla. — A federal judge has stopped the 2020 census from finishing at month’s end and suspended a year-end deadline for delivering the numbers needed to decide how many seats each state gets in Congress.
The preliminary injunction granted by U.S. District Judge Lucy Koh in California late Thursday allows the once-a-decade head count of every U.S. resident to continue through the end of October.
Koh said the shortened schedule ordered by President Donald Trump’s administration likely would produce inaccurate results that would last a decade.
The judge sided with civil rights groups and local governments that sued the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Commerce, which oversees the statistical agency, arguing that minorities and others in hard-to-count communities would be missed if the counting ends this month.
In granting the preliminary injunction, the judge said the plaintiffs were likely to succeed at a trial. Despite concerns raised by top Census Bureau officials about the shortened schedule, the Trump administration failed to consider its duty to produce an accurate head count and neglected to adequately explain a reason for it, she said.
Koh said inaccuracies produced from a shortened schedule would affect the distribution of federal funding and political representation over the next 10 years. The census is used to determine how $1.5 trillion in federal spending is distributed each year and how many congressional seats each state gets.
Before the coronavirus pandemic hit in March, around the same time the census started for most U.S. residents, the bureau had planned to complete the 2020 census by the end of July.
In April, in response to the pandemic, it extended the deadline to the end of October. Then, in late July or early August, the deadline changed once again to the end of September after the Republican-controlled Senate failed to take up a request from the Census Bureau to extend the Dec. 31 deadline for turning over the numbers used for deciding how many congressional seats each state gets.
Attorneys for the Census Bureau had argued that the census must finish by the end of September to meet the Dec. 31 deadline and have enough time for crunching the numbers used for deciding how many congressional seats each state gets, in a process known as apportionment. But Koh said that argument “runs counter to the facts.”
“Those facts show not only that the Bureau could not meet the statutory deadline, but also that the Bureau had received pressure from the Commerce Department to cease seeking an extension of the deadline,” she wrote.
Koh’s preliminary injunction suspended that end-of-the-year deadline, giving Census Bureau statisticians time to crunch the numbers for apportionment from the start of November until the end of next April, for the time being.
Previously, the Census Bureau had only half that time for data processing, from the start of October until the end of December.
The San Jose, California-based judge earlier this month issued a temporary restraining order prohibiting the Census Bureau from winding down field operations until she ruled.
Attorneys for the Census Bureau and the Department of Commerce said Friday they would file an appeal and asked the judge to suspend the injunction while that happens.
“Were the Bureau to miss these deadlines, Congress could well decide to disregard the 2020 census results in conducting apportionment, as it previously did for the 1920 census,” the attorneys for the federal government said in court papers.
The civil rights groups and local governments alleged that the decision to shorten the schedule was made to accommodate a directive from Trump that tried to exclude people in the country illegally from the apportionment numbers. A three-judge panel in New York blocked Trump’s directive, saying it was unlawful. The Trump administration is appealing to the Supreme Court.
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross directed the Census Bureau to come up with a shortened plan, despite concerns raised by top bureau leaders who worried in internal communications that cutting a month off would produce a count with “fatal data quality flaws,” Koh’s order said.
The bureau was facing a shortfall in census takers after large numbers reported for training but then dropped out.
An email from Tim Olson, associate director for field operations, to his colleagues called it “ludicrous” to believe a full count could be completed before Oct. 31 and that anyone thinking the apportionment numbers would be turned in by Dec. 31 “has either a mental deficiency or a political motivation.”
Koh’s decision ensures that hard-to-count communities won’t be overlooked and produce an incomplete count, said attorneys for the plaintiffs after the ruling.
“As the court recognized, the Census Bureau has itself repeatedly recognized that a full, fair, and accurate count takes time, especially when faced with a historic pandemic,” said Melissa Sherry, the lead plaintiff’s attorney. “Every day that the 2020 Census count continues, and Census operations appropriately continue, will help ensure the accuracy and completeness of this once-in-a-decade tally.”
Seminar with Brandon Sensei - Sat 26 September
Come join us on Saturday, September 26th, 2020, for an international seminar!
Practice Conflict Done Well, the missing set of skills that can make the world a place that works for everyone.
CLICK HERE to practice with Brandon Williamscraig Sensei
5th dan Ph.D. and find out how #Somatics and Archetypal Psychology integrate with Aikido 2, Martial Nonviolence, and Peace Practices.
Understanding Stuff You Can't Change By Yourself
(Means Not Feeling Like Everything In Your Way Is Somehow Your Fault)
- Network like Who You Know is the only reason you will get hired.
- Be fearless about asking for what you really want, but ready to accept odd routes to your goal.
- Track everything you do and apply for many more positions than seems to make sense.
- Put your best foot forward, whatever that means for you and whatever it takes.
- Follow up respectfully but relentlessly
From a good article at the WSJ https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-overqualified-trap-can-hit-you-at-any-time-11566207000 I will add:
Avoid the Overqualification Label
* Explain up front why you’re applying for a position that seems beneath you.
* Research the job in depth so you can describe how it matches your experience.
* Be consistent in explaining your reasons for applying throughout all interviews for the job.
* Show openness and flexibility by talking about things you want to learn.
* Line up references who will vouch for your commitment.
* Network with contacts who also know insiders at the target company.
UnHeard Immunity
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KG: Hey folks,
Me and an old Marine medical corpsman buddy started thinking about the insanity of proposing to open up early and just let herd immunity fight the virus. These fools need to do the math. They have no idea what they are talking about.
Virologists say for herd immunity to work about 70% of the population must become infected and survive. In the US, with a population of 331 million, 70% surviving a COVID19 infection comes to around 245-250 million people infected. How do I arrive at that number? It’s estimated that about 20% of the infected will need hospitalization. That’s 45-50 million people. About 6% of the infected population will die. That’s around 14-16 million. 70% of 331 million is 231 million, plus the 14-16 million who you must compensate for because they will die, getting us to around 245-250 million.
Think about those numbers folks. There are only around 924,000 hospital beds in the USA. ICU beds? A fraction of that number. Even if spread over 2 years, there is no way we can hospitalize around 25 million people annually in the USA, our health infrastructure would be disastrously overwhelmed, so the death rate of 6% from the virus alone would actually be much much higher, likely 15-18%.
It gets a lot worse.
And what about all the people with life threatening heart conditions, cancer, and all the other life threatening illnesses. Cancer diagnoses alone are around 1.75 million annually. Heart disease and stroke kill over two million with access to medical treatment. Over 70 million Americans have some sort of cardiovascular disease. Without any access to proper healthcare, how many of these millions would die?
What about all the victims of automobile accidents or other spontaneous life threatening events? They’d have scant access to lifesaving healthcare, so they’d just be left to die too? And what about the frontline healthcare professionals. How many of them would die from exposure to the virus, further comprising our healthcare system? How would we replace them, and with who?
It gets even worse.
If 45-50 million are are hospitalized over 2 years what will happen to our food production and distribution chain? Who grows our food? Who processes our food? Who delivers our food? People were fighting over toilet paper for God’s sake. If it comes to food, it will not be fist fights in a parking lot, not in a country with over 300 million guns. How many will die from random violence and malnutrition or starvation?
But there’s more.
Will we maintain proper sanitation, or will pestilence run rampant? What will we do with the millions and millions of dead bodies? If we can’t even give the people in Flint, Michigan clean water in the best of times, imagine what will happen without properly maintained city services and sanitation.
So, how many will really die? It’s too horrific to imagine, and still there are people saying they won’t wear a mask because it violates “their rights”, and herd immunity should be allowed to take its course, you know....... because .......the economy.
News Flash! There won’t be an economy folks!
Social distance, wear a danged mask, and vote Trump’s goddamn GOP into the Stone Age, they’ve done enough damage already. Sadly, November may be too far away to prevent a massive loss of life.
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SN: As bleak a picture as you've described, the reality under this administration can still be so much worse. If ever one wondered what it might be like to stand at the tipping point toward dystopian future, this is it. Not from a sudden catastrophic event, but the accumulation of fear, mismanagement, selfishness, and the weaponization of the worst human tendencies during a prolonged crisis.
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TT: Well KG, That was uplifting news on a Saturday morning, but thanks for the gut check. January 20th cannot get here fast enough.
Damn.......
https://www.google.com/.../why-herd-immunity-will-not.../amp -
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KG: Yeah TT, my scenario is kinda rosy isn’t it? In reality 85-90% would need to be infected. A small minority of stupid muthfuckers really could bring the whole country crashing down, and we’re just sitting around watching it. What will it take to get people marching in Washington? What will it take to scare the shit out of McConnell and the rest of the GOP traitors and get them to throw Trump the curb?
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Brandon WilliamsCraig Permission to reproduce, please?
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KG: Absolutely. Go for it.
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Incomperable Tromp
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In order to secure financial gain or increase in power, he materially betrayed his office and people/country through several intentional breaches of trust or confidence, many of which he admitted publicly in order to shrug them off. That is The Reason For the #Tre45on. This is not an insult, not a personal attempt to hurt somebody's feelings by running them down. We are not acquainted and he has made absolutely clear that he couldn't care less. It is a public condemnation. If someone commits crimes and then, upon being accused, says "that's how the game is played" or "so what?" it is not an insult to call him a criminal. I don't hate him. I don't know him. I am furious but not irrational about what he has done to us, admitted, and shrugged off. He has explicitly made himself the poster boy for I Could Kill Somebody On 5th Ave And Not Lose Votes. That and what followed is not comparable to any other American politician alive, as far as I know. I am not comparing him to the most infamous war criminals of all time. I am taking seriously all the admitted outrages to which he has sold tickets so everyone can see them riveted to the forehead of his public persona. His entire strategy hinges on being The Biggest Trump Ever, the most hated by his enemies and followed without question by his worshipers, the most lethal to cross, the most impossible to anticipate (erratic and not subject to rational predictability). He must pretend to be bigger than life and mortal consequences, more outrageously powerful, uber dispenser of outrages, such that Nobody Can Stop Me. The actual man is irrelevant. It is not Oedipus one decries, but Hubris. That does not make me an NeverOedipuser; it makes me a citizen invested in civilization and the more humane side of humanity.
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Consistenly Bugbearish
“A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines. With consistency a great soul has simply nothing to do. He may as well concern himself with his shadow on the wall. Speak what you think now in hard words, and to-morrow speak what to-morrow thinks in hard words again, though it contradict every thing you said to-day. — 'Ah, so you shall be sure to be misunderstood.' — Is it so bad, then, to be misunderstood? Pythagoras was misunderstood, and Socrates, and Jesus, and Luther, and Copernicus, and Galileo, and Newton, and every pure and wise spirit that ever took flesh. To be great is to be misunderstood.”
Ralph Waldo Emerson
Covid-19 contagion and mortality rates discussed
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TET: So, are contagion and mortality rates hyped? Very soon we will exceed the number killed in the Vietnam War over a decade, and that in only 6 weeks from the initial reported deaths.
Mar 20, - 249 dead.
Apr 20, - 42,604 dead.
Now consider this. The number of deaths at the top of the curve approximates the half point. Chances are that another 40-50,000 people will die on the way down the curve if the social distancing continues and widespread testing is not implemented. If we reopen too early without testing, the downslope of the curve could be very long, if not spike a second time.
Estimates of over 100,000 are almost guaranteed.
AH: Confirmed not fake news.
MV-H: AH, There will be thousands more people who think this way who end up dead. It's pathetic and tragic. But what's worse is they spread it to others and put health care workers at risk.
AH: MV-H, Exactly.
AH: People in Jacksonville don't get it. Florida is going to cause problems. BTW I live in Jacksonville. People here are awful regarding this.
DG: Sad but hard to argue with the math.
TS: Living in a country that is predicted to potentially have the highest death rate in Europe, I am appalled that the USA is so complacent about this threat. It is a sad fact that the history books will look very poorly on the needless deaths, compounded of course by the nature of the US health system. Hopefully, when all of this has blown over (which will be a very long time) the good people of America will have a chance to rethink the folly of leaving the national health system in the rapacious hands of the free market.
KT: you are spot on....well articulated!!!
TS: Btw, the reason we are likely to have the highest death rate is because we were two weeks behind the curve, and were so sloppy on testing. Product of an arrogant, complacent, lazy government and Prime Minister
TET: We can relate to that Tim......
KT:....boy oh boy can we relate....
the numbers are not hyped...in fact most experts say the deaths and the confirmed cases are way UNDER reported....THAT is the scary part...I maintain that one of the reasons that trumpf and admin are dragging their feet on testing is because they don't really want us to know how much worse this is....and remember, if someone dies at home-they are not counted as a covid 19 death....and that is in the thousands per day across the country....
DLH: KT, And they’re looking for a way to profit from this. Didn’t focus on testing because it wasn’t profitable. Sold PPE to China for profits. Someone posted a meme- Billionaires urging workers to go to work, just proves they don’t make their money, workers do.
KT: precisely!....the bourgeois will sit comfortably and safely in their mansions while the workers (a.k.a. sacrificial lambs) will do the work for them.....
BS: The longer we refuse to take the medicine, the longer we stay sick. Tough concept, I know.
LJR: One thing I've read - and heard, from reliable sources - is that if the deceased is positive for COVID-19 they count it as a covid death, even if they actually died from heart or kidney disease or some other cause. They've been inflating flu death statistics like this for years.
TET: LJR, You have it backwards in what we are seeing now. I know someone who had COPD, died of symptoms related to COVID19 but on the death certificate it says COPD. This means COVID19 numbers are likely underrepresented, and without more comprehensive testing, we’ll never know for sure.
LJR: TET, You'd better inform NPR then.
TET:LJR, https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/2973481001
Fact check: Is US coronavirus death toll inflated? Experts agree it's likely the opposite
usatoday.com
TET: “Deaths due to COVID-19 may be misclassified as pneumonia or influenza deaths in the absence of positive test results, and these conditions may appear on death certificates as a comorbid condition.”
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)
cdc.gov
TC: It's become a deadly numbers game, almost assuredly a game we don't want to lose. This administration was given a game plan, it threw it away and is now winging it day by day with now plans in place to deal with the next pandemic.
RLPS: As I've mentioned elsewhere, these reopen protesters don’t see that they are pawns for multinational corporations and the elite 1%. Instead of trying to force governments to reopen economies, they should be working to apply pressure to test and track on a wide scale. Until that happens, we’re all riding a yo-yo.
GF: Look at the numbers, tremendous numbers, I have the best numbers, the number are far greater than anything you have ever seen before...
TS: Reliable figures are hard to come by. Different countries record their deaths in different ways. Here in the UK, until recently they have left out the care home statistics, which made a considerable difference.
As I understand it, in the USA one significant problem is that because of the high cost of medical treatment the poorest people have ducked medical treatment because of the cost and therefore have built up a catalogue of 'underlying conditions', it is these same 'underlying conditions' that will mark them out as victims of this highly contagious virus, thus the death rate of these highly vulnerable people will be astronomic! They may well die of these 'underlying conditions' as well as Covid-19, but how will it be reported?
JR: Two additional points: (1) the density under the curve is not symmetric so the risk ratios are not equal, e.g. relative risk of infection or death at day 10 pre peak does not equal the same risk 10 days post peak. Given that we see a right skew, the deaths post peak will be more infrequent but likely equal up to the peak (same number will die over a longer period).
(2) given that the likelihood ratios for antibody tests are no better than 1:2 right now, the true number of asymptotic but infected individuals is ostensibly a guess even with tests, so a dual peaked distribution (all of this ramping back up again) is a real possibility.
Brandon WilliamsCraig: This conversation is not public at this time. Can it be so it may be shared? If not, may I reproduce it somewhere with names rendered as initials?
TET: Brandon WilliamsCraig, absolutely
EVM: Also consider that we well may NOT be at the top of the Curve as of yet.
AMI: Here is a fb friend’s analysis:
https://www.facebook.com/1466350593/posts/10223245773280408/?d=n
[copied in]
JC: My friend, AN, asked me about a week ago if I still believed we would see a million (or more) dead in the US from CV19. At that time I told him I was wavering. Over this last week, I have learned some new things about how the disease presents in statistics. The new calculus is this:
Let's say we have 100 people who test positive for the disease. It appears, based on several independent studies, that of that 100 only 40 will show any signs of being sick. It also looks like the mortality rate among the ones who are symptomatic is relatively high - between 8% and 20%. These are preliminary numbers that are likely to change over time, because this disease is still only a few months old and testing, at least in the US, is abysmal. We also need to have a reliable antibody test in order to see who's been exposed and how long immunity lasts after recovery.
Bottom line, though, on estimates of the number of dead USians from CV19, I think I may be back up in the million range. Spain and France continue to climb the deaths/million plot at an alarming rate with 428 nd 296 respectively. Both are about 14 days ahead of the US on the infection curve. We're at almost 120. If we're at 300 in two weeks (where France is now), that will mean there will be almost a hundred thousand dead here in the US. Even if we're only at 200 (deaths/million) - two-thirds of France's level and only 80 more than we are right now (which seems very unlikely) - that will mean 66,000+ dead [dramatic pause] just by the end of April.
God forbid, we might be where Spain is and still climbing, as they are. If that is our destiny we'll be at nearly 150,000 dead by the end of the month. Then we still have the months that follow, until an interventional therapy or vaccine comes to our rescue. 150K dead by the end of this month followed by, say, twelve additional months at a steady pace of 50K per month - remember, "flattened curve" doesn't mean people stop dying it means the number who die each month doesn't continue to climb - we will be at three-quarters of a million dead this time next year.
Meanwhile, there are those who say the death toll is an acceptable loss to get our economy up and running again. What they don't say is that getting back to work will blow my numbers, above, out of the water. Remember that *those* numbers were based on us continuing to do what we've been doing to "flatten the curve." If we stop our efforts to flatten the curve, we might find ourselves back in the million-plus or even multi-millions dead arena. May THAT never be.
Stay at home. If you have to go out, wear a face covering and wash your hands often. If it starts to feel difficult (the staying at home) try to remember whose life you may be putting at risk by going out.
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The Journey of the Hero In The Time of Covid
What part do mythology and psychology play in deciding how to respond in a time of internaitonal crisis?
A Massive Wave Of Evictions Is Coming
"A massive wave of evictions is coming. Temporary bans won't help.
Before the novel coronavirus struck, 300,000 evictions were filed in the United States in a typical month. With nearly 10 million people filing unemployment claims last month, evictions would clearly skyrocket, absent intervention from the government. In one hint of the trouble to come, researchers...." SFGate https://www.sfgate.com/opinion/article/A-massive-wave-of-evictions-is-coming-Temporary-15186836.php
Brandon WilliamsCraig: #RentStrike. Not for me while I have income and can pay as I have agreed, but for those forced to live in housing designed to be unaffordable and those who have been ordered into staying home and sinking further into poverty to protect public health.
SM: Small landlords won't like rent strikes at all. Unintended consequences abound.
Brandon WilliamsCraig: Very true, and the temptation to say "I know we are all suffering right now, but that can't get passed on to/shared by me" is very strong. "You aren't getting paid but I must be" is especially hard when it ends in fatalities.
SM: I feel for the people who have to show up for work every day in dangerous (infectious) situations in order to keep society functioning. Too many of them are earning minimum wage already.
Brandon WilliamsCraig: SM, Amen.
DI: Indeed, I’m in that situation – accountant/landlord has been pushing me to move out the entire time of shelter in place, as I was doing a room trade with someone who went into residential care on March 8. Stressful!
LD: My girlfriend has two small rentals and runs a solopreneur hospitality based business to make ends meet. Of course her business is shut down. The rent she was charging her tenants was barely enough to cover mortgages and taxes on the rentals, and all upkeep came out of her pocket. She never raised the rent because they're long term tenants and it didn't seem fair as long as she was breaking even. So if they stop paying rent the banks foreclose and they're evicted anyway.
Brandon WilliamsCraig:
Makes sense. There are two ways out of a crisis like this. Solidarity (nobody has money so nobody pays or gets foreclosed/evicted all the way up) or crushing the people with less power--bank foreclosures drive landlord evictions drive the working poor into homelessness. With an almost complete lack of leadership from D.C., the States must hold everyone together so the poor are not sacrificed until the election can generate additional options and some hope.
LD: Brandon WilliamsCraig thats part of the issue. In Oregon the governor passed a "no eviction" regulation. But any mortgage relief or freeze? That HAS to be federal, and there's nothing even being talked about right now because the mortgage market is already in free fall. This totally false idea that "rich landlords are getting rich off of the backs of the poor" is total garbage, but its pervasive enough that when most renters hear they won't be evicted? They "hear" I don't have to pay rent and my fat cat landlord can't do anything about it. Its complete BS all the way around.
Brandon WilliamsCraig: Absolutely agree. Solidarity means nobody gets hung out to dry, and the only way to get an Everybody solution is at the federal level. Too bad we've accepted that the federal government, our only overall instrument of protecting ourselves, should be destroyed.
JZ: For small time landlords I understand it’s hard on them too. But it is an investment like anything else - a risk.
AL: Jessica Zane but that risk is mitigated by tenants paying. The inability to rent is the risk. Yes, people not paying is also a risk, but there is a typical process to deal with non-payment that they can’t utilize.
AL: Mortgages are being placed in a forebearance status and foreclosures are being delayed in some instances out to 180 days. That is in place right now. But, as a lender, even if I give you a forbearance, at some point the bill comes due. Landlords need to be making similar payment arrangements with their tenants. If a tenant believes they can’t be evicted, they might be right for 120 days or so, but eventually the bill will come due. The stimulus bill is to help weather this storm, not for a new TV or iPhone but I suspect, we will see many tenants buying new TVs and iPhone instead of making good with their landlord. In those instances, I have little sympathy on the tenant.
BW: Agree. And, in my direct experience working with groups around class issues, people with privilege almost always reach for "we will see many [Poor People] buying new TVs and iPhone instead of making good" when studies show that working/poor people most often make recovery purchases--those things privileged people think of as essential and wouldn't think of doing without, but which people who will never Own must wait to afford--like preventative medical work, dental work, a used but working replacement vacuum cleaner, etc. Beliefs about The Poor by those with social power are one of the single most potent contributing factors to supporting public policy which further undermines society as a whole based on "in those instances, I have little sympathy."
WP: At least here in California, the moratorium on evictions only applies to people with direct financial impact because of Coronavirus or shelter in place orders. And tenants need to provide documentation of reduced financial capacity if they want to avoid eviction. This is not and should not be a rent holiday for everyone.
Brandon WilliamsCraig: Agree.
outofsite
There are many benefits associated with connecting with colleagues off-site. An Out Of Site! connected group makes it possible (no pressure) to:
- Tell each other about professional opportunities
- Recommend favorite places to go
- Invite each other to check out side gigs and interests
- Arrange gatherings, ride-sharing, and let each other know when something happens that others ought to know about
- Be helpful and inclusive as our society changes before our very eyes
Who knows what else?
Cultursmith is a leadership consulting organization and online learning environment directed by Brandon WilliamsCraig. One of the free (or low-cost, if you are able) services Culturesmith offers is community-building for professionals. Please have a look below, and sign up for an email list.
If you have at any time been associated with the Area Census Office (3147) in Richardson, Texas, please consider joining:
We are happy to answer any questions!
Guns in Churches and Schools
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Brandon WilliamsCraig
Response please. Parishioners with concealed guns in churches yes or no? Armed teachers in schools?
SM: No and no.
DI: Obviously no; Texas may be challenging, I would imagine…
JS: Solid no.
SW: Never.
DR: No and no.
LL: No and absolutely NO.
DK: Nope and NOPE
NM: Absolutely no, on both counts. I'd go even farther: and say that I wouldn't attend a church service or a class where I knew someone was carrying.
CBT: Hard no. Working in an elementary school I can see so many ways for having armed adults at school to end badly
KF: No and no!
TG: Church yes, teachers no.
Brandon WilliamsCraig: TG, When you say no to teachers, are you thinking of have armed police on campus?
TG: My objection to having armed teachers relates to the lesson it teaches. Both armed guards in school and armed teachers lead to a generation that is raised on fear and that may well expect to need armed guards everywhere. I’d rather children learn better lessons from their teachers. I would support a quick response armed guard in school if it was kept out of sight.
SC: Emphatic no
CJL: NO. Fuck no!
FD: No. No.
LFM: I don’t know if you can keep guns out of churches... but I’d rather not have them there. Armed teachers in schools? Nope. If anyone ever tells me packing heat is to become part of my job, I’ll quit. Yes, I know guns can be useful in the hands of protectors; no, I don’t like them at all....
TF: No and no. I would move my child if that were the rule at their school.
Brandon WilliamsCraig Follow up: Given https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/29/us/church-shooting-texas/index.html, if an individual begins shooting people in your house of worship or school, what would you want to happen next?
Man shoots and kills 2 inside a Texas church before parishioners fatally shoot…
Man shoots and kills 2 inside a Texas church before parishioners fatally shoot him
TF: the men who started shooting were well trained and experienced. That’s very different from me carrying a gun and even being trained. That’s very different from even being a great hunter. I’m very tired of the argument that we just need to be armed. I’m tired of the testosterone fueled argument. I wish people would talk to people who HAVE been trained and HAVE HAD to shoot or even kill someone as part of their job! It’s very hard , it affects them, it’s not as easy as oh just give a good guy a gun. These are easy answers as to really addressing the multiple, multiple issues that contribute to all this in the first place.
MAB: I have been struggling with the thought of getting a CCL, haven’t been to the gun range in years. Still an internal debate.
SCJ: if you have not been to a gun range in years, I would say no. If you were honing those skills and prepared I would say yes. We don't need folks who get then because they can. We need people who have the practiced skills and confidence that they know they can hit what they aim for.
MAB: not planning on being unprepared, like I said it’s n internal debate. Based on will I go back to training, and how often and then would I take the class.
NM: "if an individual begins shooting people in your house of worship or school, what would you want to happen next?" I would want more early warning policies put in place (ex: did the shooter have a history of violence that should have been flagged, etc). On top of healing and solidarity gatherings I'd also want the FBI to aggressively investigate rightwing extremism--esp. if the shooter were a local resident.
AL: Yes. Certainly proper training is needed. It’s a big responsibility and not one to take lightly.
EMT: No and no. What has the world come to and why are we not combating the social behaviors so that there is no need for guns? Growing up this was unheard of for me. Where are we going and who do we all really want to be?
AL: although I disagree with no and no, I think your statement about combating the social behaviors gets to the root of the issue which if conquered would lead to no need.
PF: well speaking of churches, our bible has the story of Cain and Abel as the first murder. Done with a rock. so "what has the world come to" is really answered by we've always done it that way, apparently… Although sure, not always in churches or synagogues or temples.
RH: No
SCJ: Yes and yes if they are well trained and practiced
SW: No matter how well trained people are on maintenance and operation of a gun they have no training in dealing with responding to danger within a crowded situation. Accuracy does not take into account the human factors of peoples' actions and reactions.
FO: I’m conflicted. I’m also pretty sure there are some concealed carriers in our midst.
TF: I am sure there are. I just pray that should anything ever happen, there isn’t more carnage of innocent people from a gun fight.
KG: No and no. PK is involved in school security. Believe me when I say that law enforcement wants all y’all to leave those guns (or any weapons really) at home. And, you really don’t want to hear the examples backing up why... :-|
LHR: No (it is not “church” if people are carrying guns... it’s something else). And no. We need to find other ways to prevent mass murders at schools and elsewhere.
CB: NO!
CBA: No, no, a thousand times NO!
AL: I have a good friend who has a pistol range in his back yard. He shoots almost daily and is about as experienced as you can be without being an instructor. He also has a bullet hole in the floor under his dining room table because the gun he was cleaning "wasn't loaded." Every gun owner I know has a story like this, either a friend or themselves. Gun are dangerous, even in the hands of trained, experienced people. I worry that putting guns in the hands of 3.7 million teachers is likely to a lot of kids injured or killed.
DH: Yes to churches if the parishioner gets proper training, has an appropriate concealed firearm permit, and maintains their training; this is an individual decision. A qualified maybe to teachers; they are employees so they must not only comply with the above but follow the laws regarding firearms in schools and their school district policy. A high level of training and commitment is paramount.
DRD: Seconded. The man who shot the gunman recently was not only trained as that churches security detail but also a combat veteran.
DSF: Yes to church. Regarding schools: no to armed teachers, yes to armed security presence.
JSW: No!!!
NM: Just a general comment for those supporting arming teachers (or having armed guards): there was an armed guard at Parkland. He did nothing to stop the carnage.
GMF: Brandon, even thinking about bringing guns into a church would make me lose my faith. How can we be humble and vulnerable before God when we are holding a gun prepared to take a life even to protect? Arming ourselves in anticipation of what might happen sets a terrible example for students or whomever we set out to protect.
Jason Fisher: No and no. I take a very hard line on guns. I would like to see the Second Amendment repealed and a raft of new gun laws introduced. Not that I'm optimistic it will happen. I think the Republic would collapse before the 2A is repealed.
AL: Jason Fisher your comments below were very enlightening and well thought out. What would a repeal and new guns laws look like? For clarity, I’m Pro-2A but recognize that although it’s a right of all of us, blanket approval of this right isn’t the answer. One challenge I see is how would all the unregistered weapons get off the streets?
Jason Fisher: AL thank you very much, sir.
For me, the meaning and original purpose of the 2A has been so twisted by the gun lobby and by recent conservative interpretation by the Supreme Court that it is no longer serving the purpose it was meant to. I can elaborate on that if you like, but I won't assume you need me to unless you say. So, I think the only way to remove the stranglehold the gun lobby has on Congress is to repeal the 2A. It could be replaced with something else, or revised instead of repealed, or simply repealed and left at that. Of course, I realize that the chances of this happening are next to nil. But I think it's the only real path to better, more sensible gun regulation.
Assuming the 2A were repealed, I think new gun laws should include: (1) Universal background checks with no loopholes or exceptions (even one-to-one private sales), and much stiffer penalties for circumventing them. (2) Guns should be registered and require permits and safety training, and background checks should be repeated every year, not just when a gun is purchased. (3) Although there is certainly an argument that red flag laws might be abused, I would rather err on the side of safety and have red flag laws in place to alert law enforcement when registered gun owners break or are accused of breaking certain laws, exhibit certain warning signs, etc. There is a risk of going Big Brother on this, but I'm willing for us to try it if it's going to save lives. (4) If we want to go further, I think we could consider imposing some limits on the number and kinds of guns and amount of ammunition that gun owners can legally possess. The Las Vegas shooter legally purchased 47 guns, mainly high-capacity semi-automatic rifles, and thousands of rounds of ammunition, and this raised no alarms at all. That shouldn't happen. If someone has a legitimate reason for such purchases (is there any?), they they ought to be okay answering some questions about it and not mind if law enforcement keeps an eye open. (5) This is just a start; if we all put our heads together, we might come up with some more ideas that would help to reduce gun violence and accidents. For example, requiring or heavily incentivizing gun safes, trigger locks, or biometric weapons.
How to get unregistered weapons off the streets? With the gun fetish and conspiracy theories totally out of control in this country, it wouldn't be easy, but there are a couple of places we could start. Today, guns seized by law enforcement are often sold at auction, and they eventually end up on the street again. Law enforcement should destroy the firearms it seizes instead of selling them. We should also institute a buyback program. It might be mandatory for certain weapons, and optional for others. That bears more thinking about, but a similar buyback program was very successful in Australia. Penalties for withholding or for not registering firearms should be pretty stiff.
In general, we need to start thinking about guns a bit more like how we think of motor vehicles. We take safety training and have to demonstrate competence to earn a license; that license has to be periodically renewed; our right to drive can be suspended when we commit other crimes, such as driving while intoxicated; our vehicles have to registered and (in most places) inspected annually for safety; there are abundant rules of the road for the safe operation of vehicles and active enforcement of them; there are limits in place on the kinds of vehicles we can drive and how to operate them (speed, headlights, seat belts, etc.). All of that is very reasonable, and it seems to me that similar gun control measures are just as reasonable — *if* we can get the obstacle of the 2A out of the way. Until we do, those opposed to sensible (or *any*) gun laws will continue to bray in unison, "SHALL NOT BE INFRINGED! SHALL NOT BE INFRINGED!" Of course, they totally ignore the part about "well-regulated militias".
What are your thoughts on this, especially as a 2A supporter?
AL: Lots to work through here.
Ultimately, the “shall not be infringed crowd” is a minority just like the “no one needs a gun, so let’s take the all” crowd. Most of us are somewhere in the middle. I like my gun, I want to carry, buy and sell it as I please. I do think this is a right given to me. At the same time, I don’t think 100% of Americans deserve the same opportunity. Hypocritical perhaps, but you list many of the reasons - training, mental stability, history of violence, etc. I believe the mental health crisis in America deserves more attention and would curb the need to remove guns from homes. I could easily support proficiency training. I could easily support more stringent background checks. I could easily support some form of red flag law as long as the penalty for false reporting was severe. We need to ensure that red flag reporting is a true red flag and not a result of a mad ex-spouse, neighbor or co-worker.
As far as the unregistered guns: I don’t see it ever happening. There are too many of guns that were never registered that have been handed down over the years. In addition, there are methods to currently build unregistered weapons on the AR platform. Many of those who build those weapons, do so that there is no record once the “boogaloo” starts.
Another challenge is the variety of gun owners. It ranges from I got grandads gun and I just don’t want to get rid of them to the hunter only to the guy that has one semi auto so he can plink a few cans to the 47 guns guy and everything in between. Society is worried about the AR guy. Many 2A supporters are worried about being able to keep granddads guns. That’s what make the 2A crowd so large.
Again, lots to noodle on. I have said it about many subjects, 4 or 5 reasonable people could sit down with a few adult beverages and a couple of pizzas and work out 98% of the problems this country faces. We wouldn’t please the extremists on either side, but we would please 80% of the Nation. We would get there by giving a little on each side (no bazookas in exchange for more comprehensive background checks etc)
Jason Fisher: AL, these are all very good points (the mental health crisis, the dangers of red flag laws, build-'em-yourself guns), and especially your last one about how sensible people of differing viewpoints could come together to build solutions, if only we were given a chance. That is part of the reason I don't give up on these conversations, even though most of what I say I've said a hundred times before. Every so often I'll encounter someone like yourself, and that is encouraging. It would be very easy to just wipe my hands of the debate. To be honest, I'm not optimistic that (m)any of these changes will happen. I think the total collapse of the Republic is more likely than the repeal of the 2A. That ship has sailed and probably only catastrophe or revolution could turn it around. If murdered children are not enough, then I don't think anything is. You seem very reasonable and willing to compromise, and I appreciate that. I have moved further left the longer this crisis has gone one, but I like to think I'm also reasonable and willing to compromise.
Let me ask you a personal question, if I may. You said you'd like to be able to buy and sell your gun as you please and that you see this as a basic right. Do you think you personally do or should have any obligation to try to be sure that the person you sell it to isn't buying it to do harm? Not *how* you would or could be sure, just *whether* you should try. Would you feel any guilt or responsibility if you heard a few days after selling someone your gun that he had murdered his family and himself with it? This isn't a trick question, and I realize such ethical hypotheticals are inherently difficult, often without any definitive right answer. I'm not setting you up for a zinger; I'm only curious how you feel about it. Please don't feel obligated to answer if you'd rather not.
AL: Jason Fisher, valid question that I fully intended to place the answer in my post. I have no issue with a requirement that all fire arms sales be consummated through a licensed dealer who performs the required background checks. In fact, personally I would recommend it (and would do it) to ensure I wasn’t buying a stolen weapon. This would close the so call gun show loophole. This is an acceptable compromise in my opinion. Maybe that doesn’t really give me the ability to “buy and sell as I please.” But it meets my personal definition of having the ability to do so. It’s currently about a $25 and 30 minute expense. It doesn’t guarantee that the purchaser isn’t up to no good, but if I went through that effort, it would eliminate my guilt should a purchaser have ill intentions.
Jason Fisher: Agreed! Closing the loophole would be good enough for me in that regard too. It's not the only thing we need to do, but it's at least one thing we should be *able* to do. Polling shows that a majority of Americans, including a majority of conservatives, is in favor of it. We only need to remind Congress that they work for us and not for the NRA.
AL: The only way we get rid of Congress working for a lobbying group is term limits. That’s an entirely different debate. But, when a member of Congress has been there 30-40 years and all of a sudden when they are running for President they possess all the solutions, they are in fact the problem to start with or they have been there 30-40 years and we now have a problem; they probably created the problem. Hopefully, I hit both sides of the isle with that digression as that was my intention. Again, a different debate.
Jason Fisher: For what it's worth, I'm in favor of term limits and have been for many years. The people have some people to vote out bad representatives too (that's what I really meant by reminding them they work for us), but what with gerrymandering and other forms of voter suppression, it's not easy. And even if you do, sometimes a representative of the other party just takes the same checks from the same lobbyists.
JA: No and no. Trained professional in a visible security role, yes and yes.
JZ: No definitely not.
Catherine Cowart Brigden CCB: Churches yes. Schools no.
Jason Fisher Now that's interesting! Why one and not the other?
Catherine Cowart Brigden Jason Fisher There is a bigger chance for a student to take your weapon. While in a church, most parishioners who are there are there for worship and not likely to want to seize a gun.
Jason Fisher Hmmm. Most students in school are there to study and not likely to want to seize a gun. But then again, school shootings are *much* more common than church shootings, so maybe you have a point.
Catherine Cowart Brigden Jason Fisher It only takes one.
Jason Fisher Well, that applies to churches too. Or anywhere, really.
Catherine Cowart Brigden Jason Fisher When you know all of the people who normally attend your church then have the one stranger that looks out of place - i.e. White Settlement, you know there is a small chance of a fellow parishioner taking your gun. If those men had not been armed, the shooter would have killed many more people before the police got there. Is life so disposable that we shouldn’t defend any so we can wait on the police?
Jason Fisher The outcome in White Settlement was clearly about the best anyone can hope for — a skilled firearms instructor killing an attacker with a single shot within six seconds of the attacker opening fire. No question he saved lives! But it's almost never that clean. One of the two parishoners killed was shot while trying to bring his own gun out to defend himself. In Sutherland Springs, a former NRA firearms instructor injured the shooter, but didn't prevent him from killing 26 people and injuring 20 others. Perhaps without the armed challenge, he would have killed 50 people, but we don't know.
But you make a good point that a stranger stands out in a church. At least smaller churches. Shooters in schools are often students who attend the school, people everyone know. So, the greater danger is when a person you *do* know suddenly snaps and starts shooting. That could happen in a church just as easily as in a school, but so far, it's been much more common in schools, probably because teenagers are dealing with such a flood of hormones and aren't mature or fully developed yet. Unfortunately, it is easy for kids (anyone, really) to get guns in this country.
Catherine Cowart Brigden Jason Fisher Again so we let these people potentially kill everyone in the church while waiting on the police because no one in the church is armed? That doesn’t make sense to me.
Jason Fisher It doesn't make sense to me to have guns in churches *or* schools. Since Columbine, there have been 220 school shootings but only 18 church shootings. Clearly schools are a much bigger problem, but you're okay banning guns from schools. The fact is that with America's love affair with guns, people can potentially kill everyone anywhere. It comes with the guns. If we don't like it, we have to do something about the guns. As a society, we have decided that we are willing to pay that price in order to have virtually unlimited access to guns. So every so often, some unhinged person is going to start shooting people at a school or a church or a workplace. I don't believe the answer to that is *more* guns; I believe the answer is fewer guns and more regulation around them.
Catherine Cowart Brigden Jason Fisher Most of the shootings are committed by people who cannot legally purchase guns. When a people gives up their guns, the government can come in and do what they will: Germany, USSR, Cambodia, etc.
Jason Fisher I think that's incorrect. According to the following source (which also lists additional sources that agree), 74% of mass shooters since 1982 got their guns through legal means. In the case of the worst mass shooting in US history, the shooting in Las Vegas in 2017, the shooter had 47 guns, all of which were apparently purchased legally with background checks and no red flags at all (I can give you a source for that as well, if you need one).
https://www.kunc.org/post/1982-74-percent-mass-shooters-obtained-their-guns-legally#stream/0
kunc.org
Since 1982, 74 Percent Of Mass Shooters Obtained Their Guns…
Since 1982, 74 Percent Of Mass Shooters Obtained Their Guns Legally
Catherine Cowart Brigden Jason Fisher What about all of the shootings in Chicago, New York, and Baltimore where it is practically illegal to own a gun? This is a morality problem. Criminals by definition don’t follow laws.
Jason Fisher What about all of the shootings in Saint Louis, New Orleans, and Tulsa, which have some of the *weakest* gun laws in the country?
There are some outliers, like Baltimore and Chicago, which do have generally tight gun laws, but we have open borders between states. The guns in Chicago mostly come from Indiana, 30 minutes away, with some of the weakest gun laws in the country. There are a lot of myths (or falsehoods) around Chicago that gun advocates share. Also, New York does not have a high rate of gun violence; it's not even in the top 50 cities by gun violence. It used to be much higher, but tightening gun laws has reduced the violence. As a general rule, states (and countries) with more gun regulation and less gun violence; weaker gun regulation, more gun violence. There are a few exceptions, but this is statistically sound. Many studies have shown this. Take a look at the Gifford Law Center's Annual Gun Law Scorecard: https://lawcenter.giffords.org/scorecard/
Of course criminals don't follow laws, but surely that is not an argument against *having* laws!? One of the arguments you hear from gun advocates is that if you make guns illegal only criminals will have guns. Sure, but that's like saying if you make murder illegal only criminals will murder. It's a tautology.
The fact is: Americans love guns and they are willing to sacrifice *any number of lives* to have them. Toddlers who get their parents' guns and accidentally shoot themselves? Fine! Teenagers who take their parents' guns and murder their classmates? Fine! Suicides? Fine! Workplace and church shootings? Fine! Grudges in the street, road rage, you name it, all fine! Just so long as people can have any kind of gun they want, as many guns as they want, as much ammo they want, without universal background checks or permits or registration or required education. A few places require permits or registration, but not most. We have to have to permits and registration to drive, for heaven's sake, or even to own a dog, but not for guns. Oh no, because everyone knows that the key to a well-regulated militia is no permits or registration.
Forgive the frustration, but I have debated this issue with many people for many years. I doubt you're going to have an argument that I haven't heard and debunked many times before. These same talking points for guns come up again and again. They aren't sound arguments. I wish gun advocates would stop repeating them and just admit they love their guns and they are willing to accept the price we are pay in human lives to have them.
lawcenter.giffords.org
Giffords Law Center's Annual Gun Law Scorecard
Giffords Law Center's Annual Gun Law Scorecard
Catherine Cowart Brigden Jason Fisher People are Going to kill other people. More gun laws is not going to stop them. If they don’t use guns, they will use knives. If they don’t use knives, they will use clubs. We are fallen beings who sin. Punish the law breakers, not the law abiders.
Jason Fisher Yes, a determined murderer will choose whatever weapon is available. But no one can kill 58 people and wound more than 400 more from a distance of more than 1,000 feet with a knife, as the Las Vegas shooter did with his 47 guns and more than 1,000 rounds of ammunition. Knife attacks do occur, but there are usually far fewer victims, and they are less often fatal. Murderers *choose* guns for a reason: they are more lethal and they are easy to get. If knives were just as good, we'd see just as many mass "knifings" as we do mass shootings. Make the guns less available and you'll have fewer victims, period. Even if the same number of mass attacks occurred, fewer people would die. I think that's a good goal.
Catherine Cowart Brigden Jason Fisher So who should own guns?
Jason Fisher Ideally, not very many people. Only the ones who really need them.
The majority of people who own guns today do not need them. They may claim they are self-defense, but studies show that the overwhelming majority of gun owners never use a gun in self-defense. Certain vocations call for the use of guns — e.g., law enforcement. I'm not so worried about them, because those jobs come with a lot of training and oversight. And certain other people have more need than others because of what they do or where they live — e.g., farmers, forest rangers.
I am not totally opposed to hunting for food, though I don't see any reason for trophy hunting, and I don't believe the Constitution guarantees anyone a right to guns for hunting or sport or collecting.
Overall, I am not automatically opposed to private citizens owning guns, but I would like more and better regulation on them and some limits. No one can convince me there is any good reason to be able to buy 47 guns legally, especially semi-automatic rifles with high-capacity magazines. I think we ought to have required universal background checks (repeated every year), safety classes, permits, registration, red flag laws, and some limits on kinds and numbers of weapons and ammunition.
We have well over one gun for every man, woman, and child in this country, which I think is far too many. Canada's rate of civilian gun ownership is roughly one gun for every three people, and Canada seems to be getting by just fine with that. Germany gets by with only one gun for every five people. Denmark, only one gun for every ten people. And of course, the gold standard, Japan, with only one gun for every 300 people. Note that these are just per-capita averages; the actual number of people who own guns in these countries may be lower because some of them own more than one (but they don't usually own 47).
I don't see any reason we shouldn't try to reduce the number of guns in this country. They have become a golden calf.
What do you think?
Catherine Cowart Brigden Jason Fisher Who should determine who really needs them?
Catherine Cowart Brigden Also, it’s nobody’s business how many guns a person can own. If someone breaks the law punish them, not those who don’t break the law. No one will ever be able to prevent crime. There is evil in the world.
Jason Fisher I think it *is* our business. Fewer guns would mean fewer deaths, period. I'm in favor of that. If you disagree, maybe you can show me how there would be just as many deaths if there were fewer guns and they were more difficult to get. I don't simply accept that "there is evil in the world", so oh well, people are just going to shoot each other and there's nothing we can do about it. We do punish people when they break the law — when we can. Unfortunately, many of these killers end their rampages by killing themselves so that they cannot be punished. You might say they'll get their punishment in the afterlife. That is not good enough for me.
You can't prevent crime? Of course you can! Not *every* crime, of course, but most of our laws are about preventing crime. Why do we have metal detectors at airports if not to prevent crime?
This is a difficult issue to untangle. Yes, it might be challenge to write and enforce the right kinds of laws. But we could make a good-faith attempt if we would give up our obsession with guns and approach this as the public health and safety crisis that it is. We regulate the use of vehicles far more than we do guns. It just doesn't make sense to me that we should be content to have nearly 400 million guns floating around in America, mostly unknown. About 200,000 legal guns a year are stolen; guns are one of the top things stolen from homes and vehicles. That number would surely go down if there were fewer guns out there to steal in the first place.
Catherine Cowart Brigden Jason Fisher We are starting to go over ground that has already been plowed. I’m glad that we can respectfully disagree.
Jason Fisher Me too. :)
Brandon WilliamsCraig Thank you both. This is one of the clearest and most respectful representations of the classic positions in the gun rights/regulation argument stream I have seen in one place in a long time. May I transfer it to my website?
Jason Fisher Thanks, Brandon. No objections from me. :)
Jason Fisher Oh, and if you put this up on your website, would you mind letting me know and sharing a link, or if you share it on Facebook, you can tag me. Just so I know it's there. Thanks! :)
Catherine Cowart Brigden Brandon WilliamsCraig, yes, you may. [heart]
JDB: You’re in TX so...
Brandon WilliamsCraig: JDB, yes, yes I am. Born and raised.
JDB: I’m glad you’re proud of Baja Oklahoma :-)
DRW: Church- no. I would never attend again. And schools, absolutely not.
DCdP: No and no. Guns should not be allowed anywhere.
SFN: Why do you ask?
Brandon WilliamsCraig: SFN, I am a martial artist. I do my best to understand violence in order to minimze it under most circumstances. If someone walked with a drawn weapon into the classroom or Sanctuary where I am learning and worshipping, I would want to put them down as quickly as possible. Can't do that without a weapon on my person. On the other hand, I don't trust the majority of other people with weapons and want more regulations and fewer guns everywhere.
JDB: How about sane gun laws instead of either?
LZ: Apparently those are actual questions now, when they never used to be. Our society is seriously f'd up.
Brandon WilliamsCraig Definitely. But...now what?
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