KG: Hey folks,
Me and an old Marine medical corpsman buddy started thinking about the insanity of proposing to open up early and just let herd immunity fight the virus. These fools need to do the math. They have no idea what they are talking about.
Virologists say for herd immunity to work about 70% of the population must become infected and survive. In the US, with a population of 331 million, 70% surviving a COVID19 infection comes to around 245-250 million people infected. How do I arrive at that number? It’s estimated that about 20% of the infected will need hospitalization. That’s 45-50 million people. About 6% of the infected population will die. That’s around 14-16 million. 70% of 331 million is 231 million, plus the 14-16 million who you must compensate for because they will die, getting us to around 245-250 million.
Think about those numbers folks. There are only around 924,000 hospital beds in the USA. ICU beds? A fraction of that number. Even if spread over 2 years, there is no way we can hospitalize around 25 million people annually in the USA, our health infrastructure would be disastrously overwhelmed, so the death rate of 6% from the virus alone would actually be much much higher, likely 15-18%.
It gets a lot worse.
And what about all the people with life threatening heart conditions, cancer, and all the other life threatening illnesses. Cancer diagnoses alone are around 1.75 million annually. Heart disease and stroke kill over two million with access to medical treatment. Over 70 million Americans have some sort of cardiovascular disease. Without any access to proper healthcare, how many of these millions would die?
What about all the victims of automobile accidents or other spontaneous life threatening events? They’d have scant access to lifesaving healthcare, so they’d just be left to die too? And what about the frontline healthcare professionals. How many of them would die from exposure to the virus, further comprising our healthcare system? How would we replace them, and with who?
It gets even worse.
If 45-50 million are are hospitalized over 2 years what will happen to our food production and distribution chain? Who grows our food? Who processes our food? Who delivers our food? People were fighting over toilet paper for God’s sake. If it comes to food, it will not be fist fights in a parking lot, not in a country with over 300 million guns. How many will die from random violence and malnutrition or starvation?
But there’s more.
Will we maintain proper sanitation, or will pestilence run rampant? What will we do with the millions and millions of dead bodies? If we can’t even give the people in Flint, Michigan clean water in the best of times, imagine what will happen without properly maintained city services and sanitation.
So, how many will really die? It’s too horrific to imagine, and still there are people saying they won’t wear a mask because it violates “their rights”, and herd immunity should be allowed to take its course, you know....... because .......the economy.
News Flash! There won’t be an economy folks!
Social distance, wear a danged mask, and vote Trump’s goddamn GOP into the Stone Age, they’ve done enough damage already. Sadly, November may be too far away to prevent a massive loss of life.
- SN: As bleak a picture as you've described, the reality under this administration can still be so much worse. If ever one wondered what it might be like to stand at the tipping point toward dystopian future, this is it. Not from a sudden catastrophic event, but the accumulation of fear, mismanagement, selfishness, and the weaponization of the worst human tendencies during a prolonged crisis.
- At first I didn’t get the math right but now I see what you were onto. Since 70 percent of the population must be infected and survive for herd immunity to work you have to subtract the dead from the equation. So you are adding the 14-16 percent to the 231 million, getting 245-250. But, if as you say, our healthcare infrastructure is badly compromised most of the people who need hospitalization will not recover. That’s the 15-18% number you provide, so in reality 85-88% would need to be infected, further exacerbating everything further down your list.TT: Well KG, That was uplifting news on a Saturday morning, but thanks for the gut check. January 20th cannot get here fast enough.
- KG: Yeah TT, my scenario is kinda rosy isn’t it? In reality 85-90% would need to be infected. A small minority of stupid muthfuckers really could bring the whole country crashing down, and we’re just sitting around watching it. What will it take to get people marching in Washington? What will it take to scare the shit out of McConnell and the rest of the GOP traitors and get them to throw Trump the curb?
- KG: Absolutely. Go for it.
In order to secure financial gain or increase in power, he materially betrayed his office and people/country through several intentional breaches of trust or confidence, many of which he admitted publicly in order to shrug them off. That is The Reason For the #Tre45on. This is not an insult, not a personal attempt to hurt somebody's feelings by running them down. We are not acquainted and he has made absolutely clear that he couldn't care less. It is a public condemnation. If someone commits crimes and then, upon being accused, says "that's how the game is played" or "so what?" it is not an insult to call him a criminal. I don't hate him. I don't know him. I am furious but not irrational about what he has done to us, admitted, and shrugged off. He has explicitly made himself the poster boy for I Could Kill Somebody On 5th Ave And Not Lose Votes. That and what followed is not comparable to any other American politician alive, as far as I know. I am not comparing him to the most infamous war criminals of all time. I am taking seriously all the admitted outrages to which he has sold tickets so everyone can see them riveted to the forehead of his public persona. His entire strategy hinges on being The Biggest Trump Ever, the most hated by his enemies and followed without question by his worshipers, the most lethal to cross, the most impossible to anticipate (erratic and not subject to rational predictability). He must pretend to be bigger than life and mortal consequences, more outrageously powerful, uber dispenser of outrages, such that Nobody Can Stop Me. The actual man is irrelevant. It is not Oedipus one decries, but Hubris. That does not make me an NeverOedipuser; it makes me a citizen invested in civilization and the more humane side of humanity.
“A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines. With consistency a great soul has simply nothing to do. He may as well concern himself with his shadow on the wall. Speak what you think now in hard words, and to-morrow speak what to-morrow thinks in hard words again, though it contradict every thing you said to-day. — 'Ah, so you shall be sure to be misunderstood.' — Is it so bad, then, to be misunderstood? Pythagoras was misunderstood, and Socrates, and Jesus, and Luther, and Copernicus, and Galileo, and Newton, and every pure and wise spirit that ever took flesh. To be great is to be misunderstood.”
Ralph Waldo Emerson
Covid-19 contagion and mortality rates discussed
TET: So, are contagion and mortality rates hyped? Very soon we will exceed the number killed in the Vietnam War over a decade, and that in only 6 weeks from the initial reported deaths.
Mar 20, - 249 dead.
Apr 20, - 42,604 dead.
Now consider this. The number of deaths at the top of the curve approximates the half point. Chances are that another 40-50,000 people will die on the way down the curve if the social distancing continues and widespread testing is not implemented. If we reopen too early without testing, the downslope of the curve could be very long, if not spike a second time.
Estimates of over 100,000 are almost guaranteed.
AH: Confirmed not fake news.
MV-H: AH, There will be thousands more people who think this way who end up dead. It's pathetic and tragic. But what's worse is they spread it to others and put health care workers at risk.
AH: MV-H, Exactly.
AH: People in Jacksonville don't get it. Florida is going to cause problems. BTW I live in Jacksonville. People here are awful regarding this.
DG: Sad but hard to argue with the math.
TS: Living in a country that is predicted to potentially have the highest death rate in Europe, I am appalled that the USA is so complacent about this threat. It is a sad fact that the history books will look very poorly on the needless deaths, compounded of course by the nature of the US health system. Hopefully, when all of this has blown over (which will be a very long time) the good people of America will have a chance to rethink the folly of leaving the national health system in the rapacious hands of the free market.
KT: you are spot on....well articulated!!!
TS: Btw, the reason we are likely to have the highest death rate is because we were two weeks behind the curve, and were so sloppy on testing. Product of an arrogant, complacent, lazy government and Prime Minister
TET: We can relate to that Tim......
KT:....boy oh boy can we relate....
the numbers are not hyped...in fact most experts say the deaths and the confirmed cases are way UNDER reported....THAT is the scary part...I maintain that one of the reasons that trumpf and admin are dragging their feet on testing is because they don't really want us to know how much worse this is....and remember, if someone dies at home-they are not counted as a covid 19 death....and that is in the thousands per day across the country....
DLH: KT, And they’re looking for a way to profit from this. Didn’t focus on testing because it wasn’t profitable. Sold PPE to China for profits. Someone posted a meme- Billionaires urging workers to go to work, just proves they don’t make their money, workers do.
KT: precisely!....the bourgeois will sit comfortably and safely in their mansions while the workers (a.k.a. sacrificial lambs) will do the work for them.....
BS: The longer we refuse to take the medicine, the longer we stay sick. Tough concept, I know.
LJR: One thing I've read - and heard, from reliable sources - is that if the deceased is positive for COVID-19 they count it as a covid death, even if they actually died from heart or kidney disease or some other cause. They've been inflating flu death statistics like this for years.
TET: LJR, You have it backwards in what we are seeing now. I know someone who had COPD, died of symptoms related to COVID19 but on the death certificate it says COPD. This means COVID19 numbers are likely underrepresented, and without more comprehensive testing, we’ll never know for sure.
LJR: TET, You'd better inform NPR then.
Fact check: Is US coronavirus death toll inflated? Experts agree it's likely the opposite
TET: “Deaths due to COVID-19 may be misclassified as pneumonia or influenza deaths in the absence of positive test results, and these conditions may appear on death certificates as a comorbid condition.”
Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)
TC: It's become a deadly numbers game, almost assuredly a game we don't want to lose. This administration was given a game plan, it threw it away and is now winging it day by day with now plans in place to deal with the next pandemic.
RLPS: As I've mentioned elsewhere, these reopen protesters don’t see that they are pawns for multinational corporations and the elite 1%. Instead of trying to force governments to reopen economies, they should be working to apply pressure to test and track on a wide scale. Until that happens, we’re all riding a yo-yo.
GF: Look at the numbers, tremendous numbers, I have the best numbers, the number are far greater than anything you have ever seen before...
TS: Reliable figures are hard to come by. Different countries record their deaths in different ways. Here in the UK, until recently they have left out the care home statistics, which made a considerable difference.
As I understand it, in the USA one significant problem is that because of the high cost of medical treatment the poorest people have ducked medical treatment because of the cost and therefore have built up a catalogue of 'underlying conditions', it is these same 'underlying conditions' that will mark them out as victims of this highly contagious virus, thus the death rate of these highly vulnerable people will be astronomic! They may well die of these 'underlying conditions' as well as Covid-19, but how will it be reported?
JR: Two additional points: (1) the density under the curve is not symmetric so the risk ratios are not equal, e.g. relative risk of infection or death at day 10 pre peak does not equal the same risk 10 days post peak. Given that we see a right skew, the deaths post peak will be more infrequent but likely equal up to the peak (same number will die over a longer period).
(2) given that the likelihood ratios for antibody tests are no better than 1:2 right now, the true number of asymptotic but infected individuals is ostensibly a guess even with tests, so a dual peaked distribution (all of this ramping back up again) is a real possibility.
Brandon WilliamsCraig: This conversation is not public at this time. Can it be so it may be shared? If not, may I reproduce it somewhere with names rendered as initials?
TET: Brandon WilliamsCraig, absolutely
EVM: Also consider that we well may NOT be at the top of the Curve as of yet.
AMI: Here is a fb friend’s analysis:
JC: My friend, AN, asked me about a week ago if I still believed we would see a million (or more) dead in the US from CV19. At that time I told him I was wavering. Over this last week, I have learned some new things about how the disease presents in statistics. The new calculus is this:
Let's say we have 100 people who test positive for the disease. It appears, based on several independent studies, that of that 100 only 40 will show any signs of being sick. It also looks like the mortality rate among the ones who are symptomatic is relatively high - between 8% and 20%. These are preliminary numbers that are likely to change over time, because this disease is still only a few months old and testing, at least in the US, is abysmal. We also need to have a reliable antibody test in order to see who's been exposed and how long immunity lasts after recovery.
Bottom line, though, on estimates of the number of dead USians from CV19, I think I may be back up in the million range. Spain and France continue to climb the deaths/million plot at an alarming rate with 428 nd 296 respectively. Both are about 14 days ahead of the US on the infection curve. We're at almost 120. If we're at 300 in two weeks (where France is now), that will mean there will be almost a hundred thousand dead here in the US. Even if we're only at 200 (deaths/million) - two-thirds of France's level and only 80 more than we are right now (which seems very unlikely) - that will mean 66,000+ dead [dramatic pause] just by the end of April.
God forbid, we might be where Spain is and still climbing, as they are. If that is our destiny we'll be at nearly 150,000 dead by the end of the month. Then we still have the months that follow, until an interventional therapy or vaccine comes to our rescue. 150K dead by the end of this month followed by, say, twelve additional months at a steady pace of 50K per month - remember, "flattened curve" doesn't mean people stop dying it means the number who die each month doesn't continue to climb - we will be at three-quarters of a million dead this time next year.
Meanwhile, there are those who say the death toll is an acceptable loss to get our economy up and running again. What they don't say is that getting back to work will blow my numbers, above, out of the water. Remember that *those* numbers were based on us continuing to do what we've been doing to "flatten the curve." If we stop our efforts to flatten the curve, we might find ourselves back in the million-plus or even multi-millions dead arena. May THAT never be.
Stay at home. If you have to go out, wear a face covering and wash your hands often. If it starts to feel difficult (the staying at home) try to remember whose life you may be putting at risk by going out.
.The Journey of the Hero In The Time of Covid
What part do mythology and psychology play in deciding how to respond in a time of internaitonal crisis?
A Massive Wave Of Evictions Is Coming
"A massive wave of evictions is coming. Temporary bans won't help.
Before the novel coronavirus struck, 300,000 evictions were filed in the United States in a typical month. With nearly 10 million people filing unemployment claims last month, evictions would clearly skyrocket, absent intervention from the government. In one hint of the trouble to come, researchers...." SFGate https://www.sfgate.com/opinion/article/A-massive-wave-of-evictions-is-coming-Temporary-15186836.php
Brandon WilliamsCraig: #RentStrike. Not for me while I have income and can pay as I have agreed, but for those forced to live in housing designed to be unaffordable and those who have been ordered into staying home and sinking further into poverty to protect public health.
SM: Small landlords won't like rent strikes at all. Unintended consequences abound.
Brandon WilliamsCraig: Very true, and the temptation to say "I know we are all suffering right now, but that can't get passed on to/shared by me" is very strong. "You aren't getting paid but I must be" is especially hard when it ends in fatalities.
SM: I feel for the people who have to show up for work every day in dangerous (infectious) situations in order to keep society functioning. Too many of them are earning minimum wage already.
Brandon WilliamsCraig: SM, Amen.
DI: Indeed, I’m in that situation – accountant/landlord has been pushing me to move out the entire time of shelter in place, as I was doing a room trade with someone who went into residential care on March 8. Stressful!
LD: My girlfriend has two small rentals and runs a solopreneur hospitality based business to make ends meet. Of course her business is shut down. The rent she was charging her tenants was barely enough to cover mortgages and taxes on the rentals, and all upkeep came out of her pocket. She never raised the rent because they're long term tenants and it didn't seem fair as long as she was breaking even. So if they stop paying rent the banks foreclose and they're evicted anyway.
Makes sense. There are two ways out of a crisis like this. Solidarity (nobody has money so nobody pays or gets foreclosed/evicted all the way up) or crushing the people with less power--bank foreclosures drive landlord evictions drive the working poor into homelessness. With an almost complete lack of leadership from D.C., the States must hold everyone together so the poor are not sacrificed until the election can generate additional options and some hope.
LD: Brandon WilliamsCraig thats part of the issue. In Oregon the governor passed a "no eviction" regulation. But any mortgage relief or freeze? That HAS to be federal, and there's nothing even being talked about right now because the mortgage market is already in free fall. This totally false idea that "rich landlords are getting rich off of the backs of the poor" is total garbage, but its pervasive enough that when most renters hear they won't be evicted? They "hear" I don't have to pay rent and my fat cat landlord can't do anything about it. Its complete BS all the way around.
Brandon WilliamsCraig: Absolutely agree. Solidarity means nobody gets hung out to dry, and the only way to get an Everybody solution is at the federal level. Too bad we've accepted that the federal government, our only overall instrument of protecting ourselves, should be destroyed.
JZ: For small time landlords I understand it’s hard on them too. But it is an investment like anything else - a risk.
AL: Jessica Zane but that risk is mitigated by tenants paying. The inability to rent is the risk. Yes, people not paying is also a risk, but there is a typical process to deal with non-payment that they can’t utilize.
AL: Mortgages are being placed in a forebearance status and foreclosures are being delayed in some instances out to 180 days. That is in place right now. But, as a lender, even if I give you a forbearance, at some point the bill comes due. Landlords need to be making similar payment arrangements with their tenants. If a tenant believes they can’t be evicted, they might be right for 120 days or so, but eventually the bill will come due. The stimulus bill is to help weather this storm, not for a new TV or iPhone but I suspect, we will see many tenants buying new TVs and iPhone instead of making good with their landlord. In those instances, I have little sympathy on the tenant.
BW: Agree. And, in my direct experience working with groups around class issues, people with privilege almost always reach for "we will see many [Poor People] buying new TVs and iPhone instead of making good" when studies show that working/poor people most often make recovery purchases--those things privileged people think of as essential and wouldn't think of doing without, but which people who will never Own must wait to afford--like preventative medical work, dental work, a used but working replacement vacuum cleaner, etc. Beliefs about The Poor by those with social power are one of the single most potent contributing factors to supporting public policy which further undermines society as a whole based on "in those instances, I have little sympathy."
WP: At least here in California, the moratorium on evictions only applies to people with direct financial impact because of Coronavirus or shelter in place orders. And tenants need to provide documentation of reduced financial capacity if they want to avoid eviction. This is not and should not be a rent holiday for everyone.
Brandon WilliamsCraig: Agree.outofsite
There are many benefits associated with connecting with colleagues off-site. An Out Of Site! connected group makes it possible (no pressure) to:
- Tell each other about professional opportunities
- Recommend favorite places to go
- Invite each other to check out side gigs and interests
- Arrange gatherings, ride-sharing, and let each other know when something happens that others ought to know about
- Be helpful and inclusive as our society changes before our very eyes
Who knows what else?
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